A statistical deep-dive into a console AoE2 account that climbed from 1,000 to 2,000+ rating in a month — and who's really behind the controller for the hardest games.
A Console Investigation
One PSN account rocketed from 1000 to 2020 rating in 30 days. Then the wins stopped. Here's what the data says about who's really behind the controller.
AoE2 Console Investigation Series
Garyy-__-1 showed up on PSN and won almost everything — until the matchmaker started feeding him real competition.
First 60 games
90% win rate, 1000 → ~1900 rating
Vs. 1900+ rated opponents
37.5% win rate, 24 games, peak 2020
Source: aoe2companion match history, Aug 28 – Sep 29 2026
The claim: Garyy-__-1 is secretly Gary_zZ, a known PC pro. One person can't be mid-game on two platforms at once — but that's exactly what the clock shows, 19 separate times.
Aug 28, 2026
Garyy-__-1 21:21 – 22:00 PSN
Gary_zZ 21:29 – 21:56 Steam
27 min overlap
Sep 23, 2026
Garyy-__-1 21:18 – 21:53 PSN
Gary_zZ 20:58 – 21:41 Steam
23 min overlap
Sep 24, 2026
Garyy-__-1 22:43 – 23:08 PSN
Gary_zZ 22:46 – 23:19 Steam
23 min overlap
These are 3 of 19 separate instances — full ranked matches running simultaneously, in progress, on two different platforms. Same person, same keyboard, same controller? Not possible.
Source: both accounts' own match timestamps, Aug 28 – Sep 29 2026
Matchmaking defaults to PSN-only. Crossplay is an opt-in toggle, not the default.
Turning on crossplay
Options (the 3-line button on the controller) → Game → "Enable Cross Play" → set to On
Off by default, per players in the scene
Total ranked console pool
All ranked 1v1 Console players, Xbox + PSN combined
What that means
A large base of PSN players who, by default, only ever match with other PSN players
That's the pool the same handful of names keep crossing paths in — a self-contained PSN-only scene, separate from the much larger crossplay pool most players match into.
Crossplay instructions per players in the scene. Population figures from the live rm_1v1_console leaderboard
Everyone he's shared an unranked custom lobby with more than once, since day 1.
| Player | Country | Lobbies together | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| drz_danik | Unset | 5 | Most durable connection — still playing with him in Sept |
| Ayaxe19 | Mexico | 5 | Tied for most frequent |
| Itz_ED_aoe | USA | 4 | Plays Tuesdays normally |
| DANY_THA_GOER559 | USA | 4 | |
| ARG_DSP_10 | Argentina | 3 | Day 2 teammate |
| UTA_Boy | USA | 3 | |
| BillieDownn | UK | 3 | |
| Hydra_spy | Sweden | 2 | Day 1 teammate |
This group played unranked customs with Garyy repeatedly from his very first days on the account — a real, pre-existing social circle.
Unranked lobbies only. Full social graph built from custom-lobby rosters, Aug 28 – Sep 29 2026
Looked past Garyy's own games — at who else shows up repeatedly across several of his early circle's own unranked lobby histories.
| Player | Connects to | Combined games | Which circle members |
|---|---|---|---|
| DarklyNoon12 | 5 of 8 | 458 | UTA_Boy, Itz_ED_aoe, DANY_THA_GOER559, Ayaxe19, drz_danik |
| CloudAth | 5 of 8 | 448 | UTA_Boy, Ayaxe19, ARG_DSP_10, Itz_ED_aoe, DANY_THA_GOER559 |
| pandosopoderoso | 4 of 8 | 537 | UTA_Boy, Itz_ED_aoe, Ayaxe19, ARG_DSP_10 |
| Ceiling_Cricket_ | 4 of 8 | 488 | UTA_Boy, Itz_ED_aoe, Ayaxe19, ARG_DSP_10 |
| HG_212 | 3 of 8 | 322 | Itz_ED_aoe, UTA_Boy, ARG_DSP_10 |
| Pitbull_Mama8 | 3 of 8 | 249 | Ayaxe19, DANY_THA_GOER559, drz_danik |
| laurasan1375 | 3 of 8 | 234 | drz_danik, ARG_DSP_10, DANY_THA_GOER559 |
pandosopoderoso is a confirmed alt of Pandaofpeace93 — and it's not even the most-connected name here. This early circle is one dense, real social cluster, not a handful of coincidences.
Each player's own unranked lobby history, top-10 contacts cross-referenced across the circle
Checked the 2 months right before Aug 28, 2026 — the day Garyy's account was created — against the month after.
| Player | 2 months before | After Aug 28 | Strongest link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayaxe19 | 72.8 lobbies/mo | 62.7 lobbies/mo | ARG_DSP_10 |
| ARG_DSP_10 | 56.6 lobbies/mo | 64.5 lobbies/mo | Ayaxe19 |
| Itz_ED_aoe | 36.9 lobbies/mo | 90.0 lobbies/mo | UTA_Boy |
| DANY_THA_GOER559 | 97.9 lobbies/mo | 144.5 lobbies/mo | Ayaxe19 |
| UTA_Boy | 45.2 lobbies/mo | 72.7 lobbies/mo | Itz_ED_aoe |
| drz_danik | 33.9 lobbies/mo | 47.3 lobbies/mo | DANY_THA_GOER559 |
This group was already running at near-full intensity in the 2 months right before Garyy's account existed — Ayaxe19 was even busier before. This isn't a circle that formed around him.
Rates normalized to games/month, matched 61-day-before vs 33-day-after windows
Every tracked console player, all time, with a peak rating near Garyy's 2020 (1955–2306) — confirmed alts merged into one entry. 37 distinct people.
| Player | Peak | Player | Peak | Player | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| volcanloup | 2306 | ALPO4769 | 2075 | CrazyBball4life | 2002 |
| Faith2Adventure | 2291 | El Macho O1 | 2072 | BillieDown | 2001 |
| UxDora | 2279 | ItsGutsAoE | 2068 | OverladenSnake6 | 1996 |
| UxLiho | 2222 | FI2 JRC | 2053 | Darth Llahma | 1993 |
| DarK Slaayer | 2185 | Shadow8373 | 2050 | Im2Good4YoMoma | 1991 |
| Donald2O16Trump | 2184 | Dbs Elm | 2048 | xXDeltaXFadesXx | 1987 |
| Prottardo | 2183 | BeaverMan5 | 2045 | RKs Raggz | 1981 |
| sologhost | 2178 | Zotico3 | 2044 | ObelusCipher | 1975 |
| MORIS0202 | 2138 | CrustyPotato313 | 2038 | PrEyOnU1 | 1968 |
| xE Tundra | 2132 | Prop1aNea | 2031 | Turtle tank3344 | 1956 |
| x FalKo i | 2101 | SpaciousBunion5 | 2025 | lduzo | 1955 |
| D4NI3L J0N35 | 2098 | Cain2point0 | 2021 | ||
| CarefulTulip69 | 2076 | skully1770 | 2020 |
Source: aggregate-meta.json + site's confirmed alt-group records, 1v1 Console leaderboard, all-time peak rating
Of the 37 capable players (alts merged, all still active), only 4 accounts are on PSN — and two are already confirmed alts of each other.
ItsGutsAoE
+ KingSlaayerAoE (2029)
7-account confirmed alt group
CrustyPotato313
+ ReallyScaryPotat (alt)
Prop1aNea
no known alts
BillieDown
+ BillieDownn (alt)
confirmed alt pair
All 5 played Garyy, or someone in his direct circle, at least once
All game modes, last 3 months only (since July 1), 3-hour blocks (EDT). Garyy split into before/after he first crossed 1900 rating (Sept 25). Top players = the 11 ranked opponents from the tracked field Garyy has actually faced.
Garyy, low-elo era (123)
Garyy, high-elo era (49)
ItsGuts group (369)
BillieDown (371)
Top players faced (4,266, 11 accts)
Ranked 1v1 games, last 3 months only (since July 1), 3-hour blocks (EDT). Garyy split into before/after he first crossed 1900 rating (Sept 25). Top players = the 11 ranked opponents from the tracked field Garyy has actually faced.
Garyy, low-elo era (79)
Garyy, high-elo era (27)
ItsGuts group (78)
BillieDown (165)
Top players faced (1,205, 11 accts)
Head-to-head vs. all 37 capable players. He's only actually crossed paths with 12 of them — a winning record against most.
| Player | Peak | Record | Player | Peak | Record | Player | Peak | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| volcanloup | 2306 | — | ALPO4769 | 2075 | 6-3 | CrazyBball4life | 2002 | — |
| Faith2Adventure | 2291 | — | El Macho O1 | 2072 | — | BillieDown | 2001 | — |
| UxDora | 2279 | 0-2 | ItsGutsAoE | 2068 | — | OverladenSnake6 | 1996 | 4-1 |
| UxLiho | 2222 | 1-3 | FI2 JRC | 2053 | — | Darth Llahma | 1993 | — |
| DarK Slaayer | 2185 | — | Shadow8373 | 2050 | — | Im2Good4YoMoma | 1991 | — |
| Donald2O16Trump | 2184 | 0-1 | Dbs Elm | 2048 | — | xXDeltaXFadesXx | 1987 | — |
| Prottardo | 2183 | — | BeaverMan5 | 2045 | — | RKs Raggz | 1981 | — |
| sologhost | 2178 | 0-1 | Zotico3 | 2044 | — | ObelusCipher | 1975 | — |
| MORIS0202 | 2138 | 2-4 | CrustyPotato313 | 2038 | — | PrEyOnU1 | 1968 | — |
| xE Tundra | 2132 | — | Prop1aNea | 2031 | 1-0 | Turtle tank3344 | 1956 | — |
| x FalKo i | 2101 | 0-1 | SpaciousBunion5 | 2025 | — | lduzo | 1955 | 2-0 |
| D4NI3L J0N35 | 2098 | — | Cain2point0 | 2021 | — | |||
| CarefulTulip69 | 2076 | 1-1 | skully1770 | 2020 | 2-1 |
Green = winning record ยท Red = losing record ยท Grey = never matched up, by chance or by luck
Green = winning, red = losing, amber = roughly even, grey = never played
Garyy, BillieDown, and ItsGuts group against the same 4 rivals โ one table.
| Account | ALPO4769 | MORIS0202 | OverladenSnake6 | UxLiho |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garyy | 6-3 (66.7%) | 2-4 (33.3%) | 4-1 (80.0%) | 1-3 (25.0%) |
Garyy, BillieDown, and ItsGuts group against the same 4 rivals — one table.
| Account | ALPO4769 | MORIS0202 | OverladenSnake6 | UxLiho |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garyy | 6-3 (66.7%) | 2-4 (33.3%) | 4-1 (80.0%) | 1-3 (25.0%) |
| BillieDown | 4-12 (25.0%) | 1-4 (20.0%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | 3-4 (42.9%) |
| ItsGuts group | 16-5 (76.2%) | 1-1 (50.0%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | never played |
No single account's win rate consistently tracks with Garyy's across all 4 rivals — each of the three has its own strong and weak matchups.
Green = winning, red = losing, amber = roughly even, grey = never played
The question isn't "how often is each candidate quiet" — it's whether they go MORE quiet specifically when Garyy faces tough opponents, compared to how often they're normally quiet at that exact time of day on random other days — no reference to Garyy at all.
| Candidate | Baseline (random days) | Tough games | Excess | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop1aNea | 97.6% quiet | 94.1% quiet | −3.5pp | 0.349 — not significant |
What's "baseline"? How often this person is normally quiet at that same clock time, on random days that have nothing to do with Garyy — just their everyday schedule. If their quiet rate during Garyy's tough games is way above that, it's not just a quiet moment, it's happening specifically when it matters. The p-value is the odds that gap would show up by pure chance.
p-values from a 10,000-trial permutation test against each player's own quiet rate at that same clock time on random other days
The question isn't "how often is each candidate quiet" — it's whether they go MORE quiet specifically when Garyy faces tough opponents, compared to how often they're normally quiet at that exact time of day on random other days — no reference to Garyy at all.
| Candidate | Baseline (random days) | Tough games | Excess | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop1aNea | 97.6% quiet | 94.1% quiet | −3.5pp | 0.349 — not significant |
| UxDora (control, no known connection) | 94.0% quiet | 100.0% quiet | +6.0pp | 0.369 — not significant |
Why the raw percentage alone doesn't prove anything: UxDora is also 100% quiet on Garyy's tough games — same number you'll see for the real candidates later. But his baseline is already 94%, so hitting 100% isn't surprising (p=0.369). It's the gap from baseline that matters, not the headline number.
p-values from a 10,000-trial permutation test against each player's own quiet rate at that same clock time on random other days
The question isn't "how often is each candidate quiet" — it's whether they go MORE quiet specifically when Garyy faces tough opponents, compared to how often they're normally quiet at that exact time of day on random other days — no reference to Garyy at all.
| Candidate | Baseline (random days) | Tough games | Excess | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop1aNea | 97.6% quiet | 94.1% quiet | −3.5pp | 0.349 — not significant |
| UxDora (control, no known connection) | 94.0% quiet | 100.0% quiet | +6.0pp | 0.369 — not significant |
| ItsGuts group (7) | 87.0% quiet | 100.0% quiet | +13.0pp | <0.0001 — real |
ItsGuts group clears this test. An earlier version of this comparison (against their own easy-game rate instead of a true random-day baseline) made them look borderline. Measured against their real, Garyy-independent baseline, they were quiet for all 17 of Garyy's toughest games — a pattern that would happen by chance less than once in 10,000 tries.
p-values from a 10,000-trial permutation test against each player's own quiet rate at that same clock time on random other days
The question isn't "how often is each candidate quiet" — it's whether they go MORE quiet specifically when Garyy faces tough opponents, compared to how often they're normally quiet at that exact time of day on random other days — no reference to Garyy at all.
| Candidate | Baseline (random days) | Tough games | Excess | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop1aNea | 97.6% quiet | 94.1% quiet | −3.5pp | 0.349 — not significant |
| UxDora (control, no known connection) | 94.0% quiet | 100.0% quiet | +6.0pp | 0.369 — not significant |
| ItsGuts group (7) | 87.0% quiet | 100.0% quiet | +13.0pp | <0.0001 — real |
| BillieDown (+alt) | 81.5% quiet | 100.0% quiet | +18.5pp | <0.0001 — real |
Both BillieDown and ItsGuts group were quiet for all 17 of Garyy's toughest games since he crossed 1700 rating — zero exceptions, each — and both clear p < 0.0001 against a baseline built entirely from their own normal schedule, with no reference to Garyy at all.
p-values from a 10,000-trial permutation test against each player's own quiet rate at that same clock time on random other days
Garyy's 17 tough games (gold) against BillieDown's full activity (red) on those same 8 days, same timeline. UTC times. Where the boxes overlap, both were "on" at once — where gold sits alone, Billie was quiet.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
BillieDown, any game
Garyy's 17 tough games (gold) against where BillieDown actually was at that exact time-of-day, one week earlier (muted red, shifted forward to line up). Circled = he was active at that slot the week before — the one place a standing weekly habit would predict he'd be quiet too, and isn't.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
BillieDown, same slot 1 week earlier
Overlap (3 of 17)
Same test, pushed back a second week. BillieDown was quiet at this exact time-of-day only 8 of 17 times (47%) — versus 100% during the actual tough games. The further back you go, the less it looks like a standing schedule gap.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
BillieDown, same slot 2 weeks earlier
Overlap (9 of 17)
Same chart as before, swapping BillieDown for ItsGuts group (7 accounts combined). Garyy's 17 tough games (gold) against ItsGuts group's full activity (green) on those same 8 days. UTC times.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
ItsGuts group, any game
Same test as BillieDown's, run on ItsGuts group. Garyy's 17 tough games (gold) against where ItsGuts actually was at that exact time-of-day, one week earlier (green, shifted forward to line up). Quiet 13 of 17 times one week earlier, vs 17/17 during the actual tough games.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
ItsGuts group, same slot 1 week earlier
Overlap (4 of 17)
Same test, pushed back a second week. ItsGuts group was quiet at this exact time-of-day 11 of 17 times (65%) two weeks earlier — versus 100% during the actual tough games.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
ItsGuts group, same slot 2 weeks earlier
Overlap (6 of 17)
Garyy's games (gold: solid = the 17 tough ones, dashed = all others) against every BillieDown game, ranked and unranked lobbies included, Sep 13 to Oct 2. UTC times. Bright boxes mark where both were in a game at the same time: violet when they were in the same lobby, light blue when each was in their own game.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
Garyy, any other game
BillieDown, any game incl. unranked
Overlap with a tough game (0 of 17)
Same lobby, opposing teams (3 of 72)
Separate game at the same time (16 of 72)
Garyy's games (gold: solid = the 17 tough ones, dashed = all others) against every ItsGuts group (7 accounts) game, ranked and unranked lobbies included, Sep 13 to Oct 2. UTC times. Bright boxes mark where both were in a game at the same time: violet when they were in the same lobby, light blue when each was in their own game.
Garyy, tough game (the 17) — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
Garyy, any other game
ItsGuts group, any game incl. unranked
Overlap with a tough game (0 of 17)
Same lobby, opposing teams (1 of 72)
Separate game at the same time (11 of 72)
Every game from Garyy, BillieDown and the ItsGuts group on one timeline, ranked and unranked lobbies included. Dim = only one of them was in a game; bright = two or three were at once, each pair in its own color; violet boxes = they were in the same lobby, with the border color showing which pair. UTC times.
Garyy only (1,677 min)
BillieDown only (909 min)
ItsGuts group only (1,768 min)
Garyy + BillieDown (244 min)
Garyy + ItsGuts group (145 min)
BillieDown + ItsGuts group (273 min)
All three at once (0 min)
Same lobby: Garyy + BillieDown (3 games, 3 opponents)
Same lobby: Garyy + ItsGuts group (1 games, 1 opponents)
Same lobby: BillieDown + ItsGuts group (7 games, 3 opponents, 4 teammates)
The easy-vs-tough comparison has a flaw: if a candidate is also playing some of Garyy's easy games, the "easy" bucket stops being a clean baseline — it's still built from Garyy's own account. Fix: compare both buckets instead to how often each candidate is normally quiet at that exact clock time, on random days that have nothing to do with Garyy at all.
| Candidate | Games | Observed quiet | Baseline (random days) | Excess | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ItsGuts group | easy | 91.7% | 88.3% | +3.3pp | 0.185 |
| ItsGuts group | tough | 100.0% | 87.0% | +13.0pp | <0.0001 |
| BillieDown | easy | 69.4% | 88.6% | −19.2pp | 0.0006 |
| BillieDown | tough | 100.0% | 81.5% | +18.5pp | <0.0001 |
Tough games, both candidates
p < 0.0001 — essentially impossible to reach by chance, even measured against each candidate's own normal behavior on days with no connection to Garyy. Whatever's driving this, it isn't noise.
Easy games, the two diverge
BillieDown is unusually active (p=0.0006) — his normal schedule overlapping Garyy's, not evidence of involvement. ItsGuts shows no significant shift either way (p=0.185).
Baseline = quiet rate at that same clock time on random other days (10,000 trials per bucket) — built from each candidate's own schedule, not from anything Garyy did
The Case, In Brief
< 1 in 10,000
chance either is coincidence (p < 0.0001 each), measured against each account's own normal behavior on days with no connection to Garyy. Of his 17 toughest games since crossing 1700 rating, both BillieDown and ItsGuts group were quiet for all 17 — zero exceptions, each.
Not a habit
At that exact time-of-day one and two weeks earlier, both were often still active — BillieDown 82%/53% of the time, ItsGuts 77%/65%. The quiet tracks the real games, not a standing weekly gap.
Mid-session, then gone
On the days this happens, both are often deep in their own sessions right up until the tough game starts, then resume right after — not days they're simply absent.
Caveat: this pattern is specific to Garyy's hardest matchups. It isn't a claim that one person plays the whole account, or that BillieDown and ItsGuts cover every tough game between them — lower-elo games, and some of the other high-elo games, may well be Garyy himself or other players in his circle. A handful of tough games (the 3-6am stretch) can't be attributed either way with this method.
Full data, methodology, and the raw numbers in the description
4 of Garyy's 17 tough games landed between 3-6am UTC โ the one stretch where the quiet-rate method has no power. Both BillieDown and ItsGuts group are already near-silent on their own accounts at this hour, win or lose, tough game or not.
| Game (UTC) | Opponent | Rating gap | Result | Billie / ItsGuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 03:41 | skully1770 | +93 | WIN | quiet / quiet |
| Sep 14, 04:29 | ALPO4769 | +188 | WIN | quiet / quiet |
| Sep 26, 05:00 | Prop1aNea | +65 | WIN | quiet / quiet |
| Sep 29, 03:17 | Donald2O16Trump | +201 | loss | quiet / quiet |
Garyy, tough game — ranked 1v1, Garyy rated 1700+, opponent rated 50+ points higher
BillieDown
ItsGuts group